Stop the Insanity! WWDC 2012 Reality Check

If you believe the rumor mill, Apple executives will address developers on Monday morning and update almost their entire product line in the space of less than two hours. To avoid disappointment, just keep repeating: "It's only a keynote… it's only a keynote… it's only a keynote…"

October 4, 2011: Apple CEO Tim Cook steps on stage and breaks the hearts of iPhone users worldwide by introducing the iPhone 4S instead of the mythical unicorn known as iPhone 5. Externally, the handset is a nearly identical copy of the iPhone 4 from a year earlier, with the addition of Siri and a vastly improved camera. The disappointment is palpable.

After months of leaked parts, blurry spy shots and reports from "reliable sources," the iPhone 5 turned out to be nothing more than vaporware. Disgruntled fans and pundits alike predicted the end was nigh and spent the next 24 hours complaining loudly about how Apple cheated them out of a true iPhone upgrade -- a crescendo that only began to subside with the death of Steve Jobs the following day.

Ironically, the iPhone 4S went on sale 10 days after the announcement and became the company's fastest-selling handset to date -- just in time for the rumor cycle to begin anew, now focused on the third-generation iPad.

Great Expectations

The launch of the iPhone 4S should be considered a cautionary tale for those with their expectations up in the clouds ahead of Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference, kicking off Monday at 10am PST (1pm EST) with a keynote address from company executives.

At this writing, just about every nook and cranny of every single Apple's product line has been barfed up as potential fodder for a refresh next week, again raising expectations higher than Cupertino is ever likely to reach. It's probably easier to predict what won't be updated next week, rather than what will!

Just this week alone, we've seen leaked product spec sheets and inventory numbers for nearly the entire Mac line (including a long-overdue Mac Pro overhaul) on top of further speculation about Retina Display MacBook Pros, USB 3.0 ports, iOS 6, Apple's mythical HDTV, the iPad mini and even a refresh of the iPod shuffle (?!) thrown in for good measure.

To paraphrase George Jetson: "Media, stop this crazy thing!"

From the Mouths of Madness

Seriously, folks, it's enough. We get it: Websites live or die by how many viewers click on their articles, and juicy Apple rumors can really ring up the ol' cash register, if you know what we mean. MacLife.com isn't entirely blameless, given that we report our fair share of these rumors as well. (In our defense, we try to poke fun at the ones that sound truly crazy, and frequently remind readers to take them at face value. Others just get ignored completely.)

The pre-WWDC 2012 hysteria has reached a fever pitch, and Apple has only themselves to blame. After all, the company hasn't released a single new product since that iPhone 4S back in October with the exception of the new iPad and third-generation Apple TV in March. That's over the last eight months, which has got to be some kind of record even for Cupertino.

Eight months is also the last time Apple even batted an eyelash in the direction of a new Mac product, when the "Late 2011" spec bump of the MacBook Pro line got pushed out the door last October. Now it's not just the Mac Pro that's starting to show its age (last update: mid-2010!), but the entire Mac lineup.

So what's happening here? Obviously these folks haven't been locked away mourning the loss of their co-founder for the last eight months -- CEO Tim Cook himself has teased amazing stuff yet to come this year, for example. Rather than approach WWDC 2012 in a scattershot way as many others are doing, now might be the time to temper expectations -- at least a little.

Macs with a Side of Mountain Lion

First of all, it's highly unlikely that Apple executives are going to spend two hours on Monday announcing updates to everything the rumor mill desperately wants to be true. New Macs are clearly on the way, but the unfinished state of OS X Mountain Lion may be throwing a bit of a monkey wrench in Cupertino's plans.

When Apple first announced OS X Mountain Lion back on February 16, they promised it would hit the Mac App Store in "late summer" -- a position that may have since shifted slightly forward in time, judging from the company's website, which now promises the updated OS as "coming this summer."

Technically, summer doesn't begin until June 20, and autumn won't officially begin until September 22 this year -- so start placing your bets. With new Mac computers already so tardy at this point, it would seem Apple may be withholding new models until they can ship with the latest big kitty preinstalled.

While leading speculation would have us believe new Macs will be introduced next week, they're either going to ship without OS X Mountain Lion or Apple has put 10.8 on the fast track. We're anticipating a gold master of OS X Mountain Lion might be provided to developers at WWDC, so a release by month's end isn't entirely out of the question (although an OS X Lion-style release in July seems more realistic). At the very least, Apple should put us out of our misery by announcing an official release date.

Campagne Wishes and Caviar Dreams

Now, what about these new Macs? Rumors have run rampant for months about slimmer, lighter MacBook Pro models that ditch the chubby SuperDrive in favor of Retina Display screens, SSD boot disks, Ivy Bridge processors with USB 3.0 on board and just about anything else one can dream up.

Even though a leaked spec sheet for a 13-inch model appears to now throw cold water on the idea of a Retina Display, let's not forget Apple is likely to save this feature for its more popular 15-inch model (and maybe the 17-inch, assuming it doesn't get cut from the ranks entirely). In any event, we see a 50/50 chance of the Retina Display coming to the Mac this year -- after all, it was just added to the new iPad in March, so it may be just a little soon yet.

At first blush, the inclusion of USB 3.0 is an odd rumor. Why would Apple wait until now to introduce technology that's already three and a half years old? This one is kind of a side bonus, considering the high-speed technology is already integrated into Intel's Ivy Bridge chipset, which almost everyone assumes Apple will use for this year's models.

But it also just makes sense: It's almost hard to find external hard drives offered these days that aren't USB 3.0 ready, while being backwardly compatible with USB 2.0 at the same time. With Cupertino pushing Thunderbolt as The Next Big Thing, who knows if Apple will ever jump on USB 4.0, assuming it's ever implemented.

First Look at iOS 6

That brings us to iOS 6, which Apple is likely to spend the bulk of its WWDC keynote time previewing, much in the same way it teased iOS 5 last year. (After all, this is a developer's conference, folks.) Despite persistent part leaks for the rumored next iPhone, we still don't anticipate a hardware refresh until September or October, but Apple has made it clear they plan annual upgrades of the software and developers will need time to prepare.

One iOS 6-related rumor that holds up pretty well is Apple's plans to show Google Maps the door after five years in favor of its own in-house solution. 3D maps sound awesome, but we'd really like to see Apple take on some kind of built-in turn-by-turn navigation as well.

Facebook integration also appears to be on the table, but that's hardly a surprise considering it was shown off in an unreleased build of iOS 5 last year. We suspect Siri is going to grow up a bit with iOS 6, potentially coming out of her beta shell with newfound superpowers we can currently only dream of.

The wildcard with iOS 6 is going to be support for the rumored four-inch display of the next iPhone, which is likely to be slightly taller than the current incarnation. Will Apple spill the beans and notify developers to get ready for the hardware change this early in the game, or wait until the last minute this fall? This one could go either way.

What's Left?

One thing that hasn't been the subject of many rumors is, how will Apple handle the MobileMe shutdown later this month? It would seem that iLife '12 (and presumably Aperture 4) may be on the horizon to tap into an iCloud-based replacement for the MobileMe Gallery feature. We're also hoping for some way to integrate the desktop iPhoto with the iOS version, but that could still be in the pipeline.

Last but not least we come to the exhaustive rumors about an Apple HDTV and iPad mini. Apple's plate is pretty full with previewing iOS 6 and preparing to launch OS X Mountain Lion, so we don't see the rumors of a revamped Apple TV OS having much merit -- especially when the software was just overhauled back in March when the third-generation device was announced.

Given that developers have never been invited into the Apple TV party, we do see the possibility that Cupertino might change that stance at WWDC, allowing third-party developers to write iOS apps specifically for the media streaming box, rather than having to hack into it with jailbreaks like aTV Flash. Such a move would also help pave the way for an eventual Apple HDTV, which most everyone believes is either imminent or coming next year.

Finally, while we tend to believe that an iPad mini will come eventually, Apple is more likely to offer it alongside the next full-sized model, particularly after shipping such a significant upgrade this year already. Where can Cupertino go with the iPad beyond a Retina Display and 4G LTE data? Cue the smaller model, which should effectively eliminate any straggling competition from Android rivals. But, that's a story for early 2013, we'd imagine.

Now that we've pulled your expectations back just a little, what do you think Apple will announce on Monday? Those rascals always have a surprise or two up their sleeve, so sound off in the comments if you think you know what they might be!

Follow this article's author, J.R. Bookwalter on Twitter

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Regards,

Derik Chan